At a recent function, er, party, Noah Kalina encouraged me to write more, by saying some nice things about my “truthiness” (my word) in the blog world, and I said to him that I wanted to write a piece on “bubbles”-about how we like to create these speculative bubbles and let them get out of control and pop. It is a theme that I have always been interested in.
The first project I did on Malls (yes those cliche parkinglots TB) primarily dealt with the un-sustainability of a culture dedicated to consumption. Suburbia is a kind of bubble in many ways, a retreat into an ex-urban safe zone, a place where consumption is encouraged, is the norm, and also the site of never ending expansion. It has taken my whole life for that bubble to pop, and you are left wondering what’s next?
I think the easy credit (and by easy, I mean starting with web 1.0) of the last 10+ years, lets call it “moniness” which is like “truthiness,” has fueled the primary bubble in consumer photography, and this has had an impact in professional photography too. It makes little sense for an amateur to spend between three to five thousand dollars on a full frame dslr and a lens or two when 90% of their needs would be served at well under a thousand dollars. But easy credit makes this possible. My first real camera in 1981 was all of 350 dollars. It wasn’t until I left assisting in 1996 that I even contemplated spending several thousand on a camera that was meant to make money, not be a hobby. But today that kind of expenditure is “normal.”
I believe the entire transition from film to digital has mainly been possible because of the consumer credit bubble. In the pro ranks, the medium format digital manufacturers have supplied credit, trade in programs, almost anything including dancing bears to get you to pony up for a 35k capture device. Very often the cost was either diffused onto the client in the form of rental fees, or never fully paid in a leasing arrangement.
I’m not questioning that for many photographers, the differential between shooting 4×5+polaroid+processing and a 35k capture back was marginal, if you had enough volume, it paid for itself in a year, or heavens, on a single job. But there are other costs too, computer upgrades, software, storage, etc, and the total uprade cycle being closer to 36 months, whereas film cameras had much longer life spans and required no RAID in the closet. Without the credit bubble, I doubt this wholesale switchover, which I peg from 2001 through 2006, five years, could not have taken place. At least that is my thesis.
Which begs the question, if a bubble created this, is it sustainable?
Already we have seen Hasselblad drop it’s prices 50% in a single stroke. I am sure photogs having recently bought an H3 at full price are fuming. And then Canon’s recent “game changer” the 5DMK2 lowers the entry point further. Not all equal, but converging on better than medium format-large format quality at a price point near 10K. Will the medium format back manufacturers like Phase, SinarBron, Mamiya, and Leaf be able to share space with Canon, Nikon, and now Leica in the mega-pixel space?
For me, I think the recent price drops by Hassy confirm one thing in my mind, that the margins on these products were astronomical to begin with, at least on the manufacturing side. Could someone please justify 20-30k on a digital back based on cost to research, develop, market, etc? What is the worldwide number for sales of these backs? Tens of thousand, or more like hundreds of thousands? I understand that Canon sells millions of units, tens of millions, but the spread seems too large to me, and couple that with the credit bubble mentality I feel like Phase, Leaf, etc were stickin’ it to us pretty good. Just because they could. You could get the financing, the financing was probably repackaged and sold off as securitized debt, whether or not it got repaid was another story, you follow on with another upgrade and even tho you had not paid the full amount for the first back, you paid half again for the second, and so on. Then there was the resale market for used backs. Again, I have to wonder, where did all these secondary vendors come from-the “digital integration specialists”, almost like boiler-rooms of sales agents for these backs. I can hear Jack Lemon already–”The leads, the leads!” These were in addition to all the known pro camera retailers, an entire workforce from nowhere competing for this business. I’m smellin’ bubble friends.
Another word of the day-
cra·ter krāt′ər
We know what that means too. It is a moniness-pit.
Just tryin’ to be ‘truthy.
Maybe the technology was already being sold to governments. If I’m not mistaken the NRO has sensors that are 4×5 FEET on spy satelites. Honeywell was the one who invented the auto focus technology in the early 80s. Aerospace trickle down? Just a guess.
Crank up the conspiracy theories!
I thought Leica invented autofocus but figured their photographers already knew how to focus so they sold it to Minolta…